Autonomous Vehicles: Emerging Technology?

There are six stages in the commonly accepted description of vehicular automation developed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE: J3016 standard). These levels range from technologies such as cruise control (automation level 1, in which specific tasks are automated but require monitoring by the human driver), through to full automation in which a driver is no longer required in any case (level 5).

Over time, even low-level technologies have developed to increase automation and shift ‘monitoring’ from human drivers to systems. Many cars employ dynamic cruise control, which automatically adjusts speed to maintain safe stopping distances on highways. When combined with technologies such as ‘stay-in-lane’ guidance and self-parking technology, automation of many processes involved in driving have already reached widespread acceptance, though only in certain contexts. This corresponds to SAE level 2.

However, a safe and socially acceptable level 5 vehicle (no driver requirement) is yet to be realised, despite many components of the technology being proven over several decades, and media reports over the past 5 years indicating they would be released by 2020.

The progressive ‘steps’ between levels may indicate autonomous vehicle development is simply part of the process of iterative improvement within a well-establish sector. This would not meet common definitions of innovation, and certainly not suit a discussion of emergent technologies, which often requires adherence to criteria such as ‘radical novelty’, ‘prominent impact’, or ‘ambiguity’ (Rotolo, et al., 2015). However, the challenges faced in the development of AVs are primarily in computer portability, software, and sensor accuracy. Adoption of the technology will also require a drastic regulatory change and most likely catalyse the transition of the automotive industry from primarily product focussed, towards a service-based output (Greiger, 2019). This level of market disruption and the paradigm shift in approaches to transportation planning and delivery which it may bring about shows that, when achieved, it will be more than just iteration on existing technologies, and in fact constitutes a completely new technology and market.  

This emergent status is also justified by the predominantly academic rather than industrial nature of current AV research (Faisal, et al., 2020). Interest in the technology despite its non-commercialised, pre-adoption state also suggests an emerging but rapidly expanding technosphere. Furthermore, autonomous vehicles match other definitions of emerging technologies, such as in Porter (2002), which describes technologies which ‘could exert much enhanced economic influence’ in the next 15 years.

AV research is undeniably undergoing a period of rapid innovation, research interest, and investment. The 2020 meta-analysis of research published in the field of AV research by Faisal, found that over half of the papers published in the two decades between 1998 and 2017 had been published between 2015 and 2017.

Autonomous Vehicles should, therefore, be examined as an emerging technology with particular caution taken when developing technological adoption plans or roadmaps.